There are lots of variables to think about. Here are some questions to consider in order to come up with a realistic answer:
- Let's start with a reality check. How much time do you have to reach what ratings level? If you work for Bonneville or Hubbard you probably have more time than if you work for Cumulus or iHeartMedia? If you’re a GM or PD, it doesn't really matter what you think is reasonable if your boss has other ideas. Find out what the bosses realities are. That's your reality. If you don't think the bosses ratings expectations are reasonable, better let him or her know up front. Matched expectations are good for job security.
- How
long has the show been together? How long have the participants been doing
radio? Malcolm Gladwell and others who study success have found that it usually takes
10,000 hours of practice to achieve greatness at anything. That would be
10 years for a four-hour per day show. How long did it take Howard Stern,
- Will
the show receive regular and effective coaching from a coach who
recognizes and can articulate the talents, strengths, and most appealing
personal traits of the individuals on the show? Coaching focused on perfecting
talents and strengths and highlighting appealing personal traits will
significantly speed up the development process. Nothing slowed the
development of the superstars of radio, true originals, like Howard Stern,
Rush Limbaugh, and Larry Lujack more than bad coaching from PDs and
management that didn't recognize and support their unique talents and
strengths. Each was fired multiple times. All were told to fit into some
current standardized success model and be anything but themselves. They
refused. Each had his own instincts and ideas about the kind of show he
wanted to do.
- How
distinctive is the show, really?
Be honest. Is the stuff it produces unconventional and memorable? Is it
markedly more interesting, meaningful and fun than the alternative? Does
it truly stand out from other radio shows and other entertainment options?
Small differences get little attention and produce slow growth.
- Does
the show have intellectual and emotional range or is it a one trick pony? Does it produce serious and
substantive content one minute and frivolous and funny stuff the next?
Does it make you laugh and cry? Does it deliver real insight? Does the
show make listeners lives noticeably better each day? How? The more the
show matters and truly makes a difference in the lives of its listeners
the faster it will grow.
- How
much of the actual content of the show is created by the show? In other words, how much time each
hour does the show have to connect with its listeners? If the show is
primarily music, it's going to take longer for the show to gain traction.
- How
well is the overall station performing? Does it deliver significant cume to sample the show
or will the show have to generate its own cume and sampling? Obviously,
this will be a factor in the speed at which the show grows.
- How
well does the show fit the worldview, lifestyle, and sensibilities of the
station's audience?
The better the fit the faster the show will connect with the station's
listeners. How well do you know the people on the show? How well do they
know themselves? What do they really know and care about? What are their
values and beliefs? How does the stuff in their hearts and minds match up
with the stuff in the hearts and minds of the station's listeners?
- How
long will you believe in the show and its potential? This may sound like a funny
question, but it's not. What happens when a couple of PPM monthlies don't
meet expectations? Do you stop believing? I've seen it happen over and
over. When you stop believing, the show stops growing. I've yet to meet a
radio personality that doesn't sense the moment his or her boss stops
believing. Fear takes over. Creativity suffers. Survival mode begins. The
minute you stop believing, the game is over.
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